Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sourc...
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We demonstrate here several previously unrecognized or insufficiently appreciated properties of the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting approach, a method used widely in both the academic literature and practical applications. We show that this model is a special case of a considerably simpler, and less often biased, random walk with drift model, and prove that the age profile forecast from both a...
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over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...
15 صفحه اولIdentification and forecasting in the Lee-Carter model
We consider the identification problem for the model of Lee and Carter (1992). The parameters of this model are known only to be identified up to certain transformations. Forecasts from the model may therefore depend on the arbitrarily chosen identification scheme. A condition for invariant forecasts is proposed. A number of standard forecast models are analyzed.
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Acknowledgments This thesis has been submitted to the University " Federico II " of Napoli in fulfilment of the requirements for the Doctoral degree in Matematica per l'Analisi Economica e la Finanza at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics. to thank Steven for this enjoyable and productive visit. I would like also to thank the Board of the Doctoral Program at the University of Napoli fo...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Demography
سال: 2015
ISSN: 0070-3370,1533-7790
DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0389-y